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25-Jan-2020 00:49

Using the equations for TCR and ECS, the total forcing change during the interval was 2.21 W/m.

Adjustment for Millennium Cyclic Warming This analysis by Lewis does not account for the long-term natural warming from the Little Ice Age (LIA), likely driven by indirect solar activity.

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The likely 83% upper bound of ECS was reported by the IPCC in AR5 at 4.5 °C, but this drops to 2.45 °C when calculated with the AR5 reported forcings, and drops to only 1.8 °C when substituting the Stevens estimate of aerosol forcing.is the change in global average temperature between two periods, is the change in forcing between the two periods, and is the top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance, which is the rate of heat uptake of the climate system.The oceans account for over 90% of the climate system heat uptake.The long time between these periods has the effect of averaging out the effect of short-term ocean oscillations such as the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), but it does not account for millennium scale ocean oscillations or indirect solar influences.The 5th assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gave a best estimate of aerosol forcing of -0.9 W/m [WG1 AR5 page 571].

The likely 83% upper bound of ECS was reported by the IPCC in AR5 at 4.5 °C, but this drops to 2.45 °C when calculated with the AR5 reported forcings, and drops to only 1.8 °C when substituting the Stevens estimate of aerosol forcing.

is the change in global average temperature between two periods, is the change in forcing between the two periods, and is the top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance, which is the rate of heat uptake of the climate system.

The oceans account for over 90% of the climate system heat uptake.

The long time between these periods has the effect of averaging out the effect of short-term ocean oscillations such as the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), but it does not account for millennium scale ocean oscillations or indirect solar influences.

The 5th assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gave a best estimate of aerosol forcing of -0.9 W/m [WG1 AR5 page 571].

This allows climate models to have high sensitivity to greenhouse gases while still roughly matching the historic temperature record.